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08/04/2008 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - "I am glad I brought this course, this monster, to its knees."
Ben Hogan famously said that statement after the 1951 U.S. Open at Oakland Hills, site of this week's 90th PGA Championship.
Fifty-seven years ago, there were only two rounds under par, including Hogan's 67 on Sunday. He won the event and put the legend of Oakland Hills into golf immortality.
The South Course at Oakland Hills could still be fresh in the players' minds. It hosted the 2004 Ryder Cup and the 1996 U.S. Open, but renovations by Rees Jones two years ago could make "The Monster" even more terrifying.
Oakland Hills will play to 7,395 yards this week thanks to added length at 15 holes. Fairways were narrowed, both fairway and greenside bunkers were changed and even the ponds at Nos. 7 and 16 bring water into play.
One thing Jones didn't tinker with was the greens at Oakland Hills. Possibly considered the most treacherous putting surfaces in the U.S., Jones did not mess with the greens where even three-footers make players sweat.
Think back to four years ago. Without the top international players, the European team put on a clinic, especially on the greens, winning the event by a staggering nine points. Sergio Garcia and Lee Westwood were outstanding that early fall weekend, but the Americans' best player was Tiger Woods.
The world No. 1 and defending champion is obviously not on hand this week, recovering from knee surgery. Last month, we endured our first Tiger-less major and it didn't disappoint.
Unfortunately, Greg Norman won't be at Oakland Hills to bring buzz like he did at the British Open. Norman declined the PGA of America's invitation, but the field is certainly not devoid of intrigue.
Phil Mickelson decided to switch clubs the week before the '04 Ryder Cup and struggled badly. He has not driven the ball well all year, but has two wins and played well at Firestone last week, tying for fourth after entering the final round tied for the lead.
Westwood shared the 54-hole lead at the Bridgestone Invitational and missed the epic Woods/Mediate U.S. Open playoff by a stroke. He's trimmed down, gotten his game in world-class shape and could be ready for a big breakthrough.
Vijay Singh was the third third-round leader and is a two-time PGA Champion. Like Mickelson, he's struggled some with the big club, but when the course requires precision and length, Singh is a hard guy to argue with. Now that he won last week at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational, he is the guy at Oakland Hills.
Garcia was lights out four years ago, but that was the Ryder Cup. He's been great at all four of those he's been in, so can he rekindle the magic without wearing the Euro uniform? Hard to say.
Garcia is probably the best driver in the world. He is not close to the top in putting and with these surfaces, the Spaniard could be in some trouble. However, imagination is required at Oakland Hills and Garcia excels when creativity is needed.
Obviously, Ryder Cuppers and 54-hole leaders from the week prior are not the only contenders worth watching.
Ernie Els and Jim Furyk tied for fifth in the '96 U.S. Open. Both are highly- ranked stars with major pedigrees and both posted top-10 finishes at Royal Birkdale.
Then there is Padraig Harrington. He's certainly in good form with his amazing back nine on Sunday at the British Open Championship and the Irishman played well in 2004 in the Ryder Cup.
Harrington went into the Open Championship with zero expectations due to a wrist injury. All he did was relax, play steady and hoist the claret jug for the second year in a row.
Not everyone has the luxury of a bum wrist. Expectations soar for some players in the absence of Woods. Mickelson, Els, Singh and Harrington can all take one step closer to being one of the game's all-time greats.
Garcia, Westwood, Adam Scott and even Kenny Perry can finally secure that elusive first major championship. Guys from both sides of the pond are fighting for Ryder Cup spots and all tour players are gearing up for a run in the FedEx Cup Playoffs.
With so much at stake at the PGA Championship, no one will tame "The Monster." Scores won't be under par this week, so look for the grinders. It's safe to say there will be more than two rounds under par, but maybe not many more.
"The greatest test of golf I have ever played, and the toughest course." - Hogan.
The toughest course, and it's lengthened?
Really is a "Monster."
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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